Dundalk, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS61 KLWX 280115 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
915 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm air mass will prevail through mid week. A cold
front approaches from the Great Lakes Wednesday before moving
through the region on Thursday, bringing a noticeable change in
air mass for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

High dense overcast persists across the region this evening,
which have helped stabilized the air mass. Lingering showers
across the south will exit soon with slowly clearing skies
expected from north to south as trough axis shifts east and
ridging begins to build from the west. River valley fog is
likely toward morning. Otherwise, warm overnight with clearing
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Tuesday will offer a brief respite from the daily shower
and thunderstorm chances. Weak high pressure building to the
southwest accompanied by weak upper level ridging will yield
primarily dry conditions. That being said, there is a slight chance
to a chance of precipitation Monday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge
as shortwave energy passes to the north. Areas along and east
of the Blue Ridge will remain dry throughout the day. Conditions
remain dry throughout the day Tuesday with surface high
pressure continuing to build to the south.

Warm and humid conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s both days. Higher elevations
will stay in the low to mid 80s. Humid conditions will yield heat
index values of 100 to 105 at lower elevations. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the 70s for most with those along and west
of the Alleghenies dipping into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions will continue Wednesday with highs reaching
the mid to perhaps upper 90s. While dew points may mix down a bit,
heat index values of 100-110 will remain possible. A shortwave
trough moving through the Great Lakes will help push a cold front
southward, but it may not reach the area until Wednesday night. Thus
there is some uncertainty with the coverage of thunderstorms during
the day, as there may just be some remnant activity that settles in
overnight. The front will be nearly overhead Thursday, and a wave of
low pressure may track along it. This will likely result in greater
coverage of precipitation. While there may be a risk for some
stronger storms either day, a heavy rain/flood threat may evolve
Thursday as convection potentially trains near the front in a
moisture rich airmass. While still muggy, heat should be less of a
concern Thursday with more clouds and the front nearby.

The frontal zone may remain close enough by on Friday for additional
chances of showers, although it will be cooler and cloudier and the
main boundary will be well to the south. Over the weekend,
conditions should improve as strong high pressure builds to the
north. Temperatures will drop below normal, and dew points will be
more comfortable in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Dry for the remainder of tonight and tomorrow as trof axis
shifts east and dry air advection begins. Have removed chance of
TSRA for CHO for Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach late Wednesday and stall over the area
Thursday. Some thunderstorms may reach the area Wednesday, but there
will be a greater chance Thursday. Sub-VFR ceilings and lingering
showers will be possible Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

No hazardous marine conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as
winds remain below SCA criteria. Winds remain light, blowing around
5 knots out of the north/northwest both days.

Southerly channeling may result in marginal advisory conditions
along the bay Wednesday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as
a cold front approaches Wednesday night, with greater potential for
thunderstorms Thursday. As the front slowly pushes south, Small
Craft Advisories may be needed Friday in northerly flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides remain elevated over the next several high tide cycles,
partially due to the recent new moon, and partially due to light
flow not really allowing water to exit southward out of the
Chesapeake Bay. No areas are forecast to hit minor at this time,
but sensitive tidal locations will continue to reach Action
Stage during the high tide cycles through mid-week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...